Historical data tells you whether you should hold shares or keep coins during the Spring Festival-www.11aabb.com

The historical data tell you should hold stock or cash Sina Level2:A shares of sina finance client during the Spring Festival Kanpan speed: the most profitable investors in 2016 after open unfavorable, a wave of rapid sell, the January Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2737.60 points, a single month fell 22.65%. With the Spring Festival approaching, investors are holding the shares, waiting for the red envelopes after the festival, or holding money to secure the Chinese new year, first look at the data review in previous years. Table: the calendar year after the Spring Festival market trend data source: news research interface finishing since 2002, the market in any case deduction, except in 2014 by 0.45%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose during the Spring Festival holiday a week ago, Chinese traditional booming new year’s psychological effect the performance is more obvious. Interface news statistics from 2000 to the present, 16 years after the Spring Festival, week, month and year market trend. In the past 16 years, the opening of the first week of the red and green disc probability is relatively close, the Shanghai index rose 9 7 down, 9 Shenzhen stock index fell 7 up, almost half from the probability, and there is no obvious directivity. Yellow on the table marked part of digital display, the first week of the year to start with a strong correlation, although do not have absolute positive correlation, but the first week after the fall, that means the market for investors when anticipation is not optimistic, the final year fell probability. In 2007 2006, two years of market Daniel, the annual index doubled, the Shanghai index in 2007 reached a record high of 6124.04 points, so in 2007, 2008 year index showed a slight pullback, but with the end of the 2008 crash hit market. The next interesting is, although the first week of data characteristics is not obvious, but the first month of data is surprising, the Shanghai Composite Index for 16 years, in addition to the 2001, 2008 and 2013 after the first month fell, the remaining 13 years have recorded some gains. Similar Shenzhen index, a total of 12 years in the first month of opening up. From this point of view, even if investors take the new year trading strategy, regardless of the opening ups and downs, buy after a week still has a probability of positive income. According to historical data, the success probability of this trading strategy is much higher than that of the first week of holding. Since the first month of 2016, the market has been greatly shocked, the uncertainties at home and abroad have increased, and the market participants have also expressed a clear view of the market. Li Chi, founder of Granville investment, believes that this year’s "red money market" will not appear. For years, his own strategy has been to say, "low PE" stocks can stay, and a firm clearance. In the low price earnings ratio, Li Chi is particularly optimistic about the financial sector, because the valuation is low, but may also see down". The general manager of Tong Ze dragon Yinfu Yi also cautious, he believes that with the deepening of market adjustment, the index of the continuous bottom, "the lowest don’t predict subjective, or to care for the first quarter, this is a most important strategy, can take out operation trace positions." Some relatively optimistic people think that the Spring Festival rebound is coming. theory

历史数据告诉你 春节期间应该持股还是持币 新浪财经Level2:A股极速看盘 新浪财经客户端:最赚钱的投资者都在用   2016年开年不利,经过一波又一波的急速杀跌,上证综指1月份收于2737.60点,单月重挫22.65%。随着春节临近,投资者们是该持股等待节后红包、还是持币安心过年,先来看看往年的数据回顾。 表:历年春节后行情走势 数据来源:界面新闻研究部整理   自2002年以来,市场无论如何演绎,除2014年微跌0.45%外,上证综指在春节假期休市前的一周均上涨,中国传统的红红火火过新年的心理效应表现的更为明显。   界面新闻统计了从2000年起至今,16年来春节后一周、一个月和全年的行情走势情况。在这16年间,开市首周红盘和绿盘的概率比较接近,上证指数9涨7跌,深圳成指9跌7涨,从概率上看几乎对半,并没有明显的指向性。   上表标示的黄色数字部分,显示出首周开局与全年走势相关性很强,虽然不具有绝对正相关关系,但是节后第一周下跌,意味着全市场投资者对当年的预判不乐观,最终全年收跌概率很大。2006、2007年两年市场大牛,全年指数翻倍,上证指数2007年创下历史新高6124.04点,因此在2007、2008年开年指数均有小幅回调,而随着行情的终结遭遇2008年大跌。   接下来有意思的是,虽然首周数据特征不明显,但是首月数据却让人惊喜,上证综指16年来,除了2001、2008和2013年节后首月收跌,其余13年都录得一定的涨幅。深圳成指情况类似,共有12年首月以上涨开局。由此看来,投资者即使采取持币过年的交易策略,不论开盘涨跌,一周后买入仍有大概率可获得正收益。从历史数据看,这一交易策略成功概率比持股赌首周涨跌要高很多。   由于2016年第一个月行情巨幅震荡,国内外不确定因素加大,市场人士对行情的演绎也观点分明。   同威投资创始人李驰认为,今年“红包行情”不会出现。多年来自称价值投资者的他此次的策略是:低市盈率(PE)股票可以留守,高的坚决清仓。在低市盈率的股票中,李驰尤为看好金融板块,因为“估值较低,但也有可能再会下行”。   龙赢富泽总经理童第轶也同样保持谨慎态度,他认为,随着市场调整日益加深,指数不断寻底,“最低点不要随意主观预测,还是以小心为第一要务,这是一季度最重要的策略,可以拿微量的仓位出来操作。”   另有相对乐观人士认为春节反弹即将来临。兴业证券首席策略分析师张忆东称:“春季反弹的时间窗口已经开启。”目前A股的反弹条件正逐步具备,原因有五方面:第一、人民币汇率波动率有望阶段性收敛、企稳。1月下旬至3月“两会”和美联储议息会议之前将是汇率稳定期;第二、未来1至2周将是国内流动性政策组合拳的预期改善、逐步兑现的窗口期;第三、第一波降仓过后,机构投资者会进入观察期;第四、产业资本维护股价的意愿上升;第五、海外股市集体技术性反抽的概率提升。   国泰君安首席宏观分析师任泽平称:“近期A股逐步回归正常,此轮调整或接近尾声。” 海通证券首席策略分析师荀玉根更是直言:“否极泰来,珍惜蹲弹行情”。荀玉根给出了以下一系列反弹逻辑:熔断机制、汇率贬值、大股东减持等利空渐退;央行投放流动性、债券利率下行、成交量萎缩、下跌中出现大阳、分级A大涨等积极信号渐现。 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: