Warm air blowing to a short-term or current spring-mentalist

Warm air blowing to short-term A shares or Level2:A shares of sina finance spring speed Kanpan sina finance App: Live on-line blogger to guide the jinbailin consulting Qin Hong last week A stock market Chonggao blocked down trend. However, on the one hand, late Friday, Shanghai and Hong Kong through the channel appeared a net buying posture, on the other hand is the weekend breeze blowing, A shares of short-term trend is optimistic, at least in the beginning of this week’s trend is worth looking forward to. Reform to further develop A shares or reform dividends, for the weekend market a lot of information, more and more market participants recognized that this reform is a positive signal to the depth of development. Especially the reform of the real estate tax and fee, which shows the positive trend of the relevant parties to inventory, but also means that the supply side structure reform is advancing in depth. Because the core component of the supply side structural reform is inventory, capacity, tax cuts, quality products and services. The real estate tax reform, both to inventory, but also tax cuts, but also to provide quality products. Because the real estate tax reform is one of the focus of the release of large Huxing consumer demand, which is conducive to the development of the real estate industry, so as to release a wealth of reform dividends. At the same time, related personnel changes provide a new perspective for the further development of the market. Personnel changes illustrate the development trend of securities market need to fit the current macroeconomic and industry trends, the development of the securities market is of positive significance, has injected new energy into the current A stock market, is expected to improve the market participants’ expectations, thereby pulling the A shares short line trend upward trend. Not only that, but it’s worth looking forward to the beginning of the week. Small trends are optimistic, but big trends have not yet changed, but it may be just a few trading days, or a relatively optimistic trend early this week, and there is no fundamental change in the general trend. Because there is a big wave of upward trend, we must have two conditions, one is clear industry hot spots, and so the industrial hot spot effect on the economy is clear and strong. Just like the real estate engine from 2005 to 2007, the investment pulling engine brought by the monetary easing from 2009 to 2010, the rapid development of the mobile Internet industry engine from 2012 to 2015. Looking at the current macro economy and even the global economy, it is difficult to find out again the new industry engine similar to the previous mentioned. Therefore, A shares are difficult to appear big upward trend. Two is a strong net inflow of funds. At present, after a significant wave of adjustment since the second half of last year, the stock of A stock market hot money has been greatly damaged, because it can escape the sharp adjustment of 1, 2, it is difficult to avoid the beginning of the RMB exchange rate fluctuations brought about by diving market. Therefore, the current A stock market stock funds is difficult to set off a big wave. For incremental funds, it is difficult for social wealth holders to raise their interest in stock investment without years of cultivation and risk forgetting. Moreover, the current A share market is not cheap, especially the new shares and sub new shares, which is the OTC incremental capital theory

暖风拂来 A股短线或现春光 新浪财经Level2:A股极速看盘 新浪财经App:直播上线 博主一对一指导   ⊙金百临咨询 秦洪   上周A股市场出现了冲高受阻回落的态势。但是,一方面是上周五尾盘沪港通通道出现了净买入的态势,另一方面则是周末暖风拂来,A股的短线走势有望乐观,至少在本周初的走势值得期待。   改革向纵深发展A股或现改革红利   对于周末市场的诸多信息来说,越来越多的市场参与者认可这是改革向纵深发展的积极信号。尤其是关于房地产税费的改革,这昭示出相关各方去库存的积极态势,更意味着供给侧结构改革正在向纵深推进。因为供给侧结构改革核心构成部分是去库存、去产能、减税、提供优质产品与服务。而房地产税费改革,既是去库存,也是减税,更是提供优质产品。因为房地产税费改革的重心之一就是释放大户型的消费需求,这有利于房地产行业的发展,从而释放出丰厚的改革红利。   与此同时,相关人事变动为市场向纵深发展提供了新的视角。人事变动说明证券市场发展趋势需要契合当前宏观经济的要求和产业趋势,这对证券市场的发展是有积极意义的,为当前A股市场注入了新的动能, 有望改善市场参与者的预期,从而牵引着A股短线走势出现向上的态势。既如此,本周初的走势值得期待。   小趋势乐观但大趋势尚未有改变迹象   不过,这可能只是数个交易日,或本周初的走势相对乐观一些,就大趋势来说,尚未有根本性改变的苗头。因为要出现一波大的上升趋势,必须要具备两个条件,一是清晰的产业热点,而且如此的产业热点对经济的拉动效应是清晰、强劲的。就如同2005年至2007年的房地产引擎,2009年至2010年的货币宽松所带来的投资拉动引擎,2012年至2015年的移动互联网快速发展的产业引擎。纵观当前宏观经济甚至包括全球经济在内,是很难再度找出新的类似于前文提及的产业引擎。所以,A股是很难出现大的涨升趋势的。   二是强劲的资金净流入态势。就目前来看,经过了去年下半年以来的数波大幅调整之后,A股市场的存量热钱大大受损,因为能够躲过了大幅调整1.0、2.0,也很难躲过年初以来的人民币汇率波动所带来的跳水行情。所以,当前A股市场的存量资金是很难掀起大的波浪。而对于增量资金来说,没有经过数年的培育与风险遗忘,也很难让社会财富拥有者再度提起对股票的投资兴趣。   更何况,当前A股市场也并不便宜,尤其是新股与次新股,这是场外增量资金最愿意加仓、最愿意抄底的品种,因为他们换手率高,进出容易。但是,目前新股与次新股股价仍然高高在上,无论是2015年年初以来上市的次新股,还是去年底上市的新股,基本上是清一色的百亿元市值、60倍市盈率,甚至百倍市盈率。在此背景下,增量资金想抄底,想进场,也无处下口啊。   综上所述,由于短线暖风频吹,可能会带来短线市场涨升能量的释放。但是,就中长线趋势来说,仍难有大的作为。甚至不排除短线反弹后,进一步调整、蓄势的可能性。毕竟A股大环境尚未有大的、积极的、有益的变化。   既如此,在操作中,建议投资者可以继续持股。同时,适量将仓位配置在业绩超预期的品种中,比如说锂电池产业股,因为天赐材料的业绩快报显示出其业绩将超越原先的业绩预告,显示出新能源动力汽车爆发式增长对相关产业链的拉动效应,所以,锂电池产业链个股可积极跟踪。另外,对年报高送转概念股、虚拟现实概念股等品种也可跟踪,它们在近期的上升趋势较为清晰,短线走势尚可期待。但是,如果短线涨幅过大,考虑到中长线趋势的谨慎观点,那么,需要考虑减持、套现,不宜恋战。 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: